Category: ranting

Machine entities who have as much, or more, intelligence as human beings and who have the same emotional potentialities in their personalities as human beings… Most computer theorists believe that once you have a computer which is more intelligent than man and capable of learning by experience, it’s inevitable that it will develop an equivalent range of emotional reactions — fear, love, hate, envy, etc.”

Stanley Kubrick, quoted in “Stanley Kubrik’s astute prediction regarding the future of AI” [faroutmagazine.co.uk] published on Far Out magazine

If Stanley Kubrick was “right” about AI… and they are referencing 2001 (not A.I. Artificial Intelligence), then please let’s stop AI now. It didn’t end well for Dave or Frank or anyone else on the Discovery.

But I think we are a long way from AIs “learning by experience”. Today there is a iterative process to training the current batch of AIs, but it’s humans who are still learning what needs to be improved and making adjustments in the system based on the experience. It is, in fact, what and how they learn that I think is going to be the problem. Maybe in fixing that we will make a true AI like all those AIs in scifi, one that can truly learn from experiance, and then it may well be that it goes down dark path just like HAL. Like Ultron, like Skynet and many more.

Today, we do seem to be running full steam into a risk of a different kind; not a true thinking machine that decides to destroy us, but a downward spiral where we are undone by AIs that are not actually intelligent, but are tricking us with what amounts to mind reading parlor tricks turned up to 11 with massive amounts of computing power. The AIs that are in the news are just menatlists predicting that you are thinking of a gray elephant from Denmark. They make the decision not based on carefully constructed series of questions that will lead almost everyone to think of a gray elephant from Denmark, but it’s the same principle, the same tool set; statistics, that allows them to answer any question you ask. They only decide based on thier statistics what the next letter, or word, or phrase —the next ‘token’— of the output should. And of couse the statistics are very complex, ‘h’ does not always follow ‘t’ and then ‘e’ sometimes, given the context of the input and where the AI is in the output ‘e’, then ‘x’ and then ‘t’ could follow ‘t’.

It’s how the statistics the AI relies on are created and how we are starting to use these AIs that creates the issue, the issue of feedback loops. The current batch of headline stealing AIs, based on Large Language Models (LLMs) are trained on content scraped from the internet. The same way that Google or Bing scrape the internet and buld ‘indexes’ that allow you to find the particular needle you are looking for. By sucking down all the text they can from the internet and processing it to build their indexes, search enginers can quickly match your input in the search box and give you the results. Over the years much work has gone into adding things to the ‘algorithm’ that creats the index and processes your input to make the reslts better. Fixing spelling mistakes and typos, looking for related terms, raking results based on how many other sites link to the result, etc. AI is doing a similar thing, taking your input and returning results, but rather than returing a web page, the AIs are constructing ‘new’ output based on the statistics they calcualted from their web scraping. The fatal feedback will come as people —and companies— start to use AIs to generate the very content that makes up the internet. The AIs will start to eat themselve and their kid. AI canibalism.

People already have a massive issue with identifying correct information on the internet. Social media is a dumpster fire of self proclaimed experts who are, at best misguided and delusional, and at worst deceitful and nefarious. LLMs trained on this poor quality data may learn internet colloquial syntax and vocabulary, they may be able to speak well and sound like they know what they are talking about, but they are not learning any other subject. They are not able to understand right from wrong, incorrect from correct, they didn’t study medicine or history, only the structure of langauge on the internet. The vast size of the models and the volume of training data and the clever tricks of the researchers and developers impress us, but it’s just a better mentalist. LLMs have only a statistical reasoning of what to say not any understanding, or knowledge of why it should be said. Ironically what the AIs actually lack is intelligence.

This is quickly becoming a problem as people and companies embrace LLMs to generate content faster a cheaper, to drive traffic to their websites and earn advertising money. Without human experts in the loop to review and revise the AIs output you end up with hallucinations, or “a confident response by an AI that does not seem to be justified by it s training data,” as Wikipedia [wikipedia.org] explains. Wikipedia also gives an example: “a hallucinating chatbot might, when asked to generate a financial report for Tesla, falsely state that Tesla’s revenue was $13.6 billion (or some other random number apparently “plucked from thin air”).”

Again, the problem is that the LLM lacks any knowledge or understanding of the subject, it can’t analyze the question or it’s own answer except from the point of view that, statistically based on its training data it should output the tokens “13.6 billion” in this situation. It’s amazing how much they do get right, how lucid they seem. This is down to their size and complexity. But if people blindly accept the AIs output and post these hallucinations to the internet —even to point out they are wrong as I’m doing— then the next batch of training data will be polluted with yet more inaccurate data and over time the whole model may start to be overwhelmed by some sort of delirium, a digital mad cow disease.

Mad Cow Disease [wikipedia.org] was caused by caused by (or really spread by) feeding cows the remains of their own dead to save money, to reuse the parts of the cow with no other use, it was ground it up and added it to cow feed. This allowed, it seems, a random harmful mutation in a prion, maybe only in a single cow, to be ingested by more cows who were, in turn, ground up and the cycle repeated and the disease spread. Now the LLMs will be fed their own AIs output and the output of competing AIs in the next training cycle. So a hallucination from one AI makes it’s way, like a defective prion, into the model of another AI to be regurgitate, and the cycle repeats allowing this digital mad cow disease to spread. And like real world mad cow disease humans who digest this infected content may come down with a digital analog of Variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob Disease (vCJD) [wikipedia.org]. Let’s hope digital vCJD is not irreverable and 100% fatal like it’s namesake.

Maybe the people who design these systems will figure out how to inject some sort of fact checking and guidelines. But who decides what us write when we can’t even agree on facts? The internet is filled with bigots and conspiracy theorists, well meaning idiots and scam artists, trolls and shills. How will AIs be any different? Maybe we will find a way to regulate things so AIs can’t be fed their own verbal diarrhea but who decides what is right and wrong? Who decides what is morally or socially acceptable?

This post is a good example of the problem, should LLMs use it as training data, it’s pure opinion by someone unqualified, I studied the principles of AI and built neural networks back in college, but I’m not an expert, the content of this post could be useful to an AI answering a question about the perception of the problem among the general public or their concerns, but it should not be used as factual or confused with expert opinion, it should not be used to answer a question about “what are the risks of training AIs on data scraped from the internet”. How does and AI trained on the internet know the difference? We seem to have jumped out of the plane without checking if we packed the parachute.

One note on the article where I got the quote: Intake issue with the fact that it talks about the all effort the Kubrick put in to make 2001 as accurate as possible, speaking with experts for “countless hours”, but it fails to mention that the 2001 was co-written with an actual scientist – Arthur C. Clark.

[T]he episode encapsulates the state of AI discourse today—a confused conversation that cycles between speculative fantasies, hyped up Silicon Valley PR, and frightening new technological realities—with most of us confused as to which is which.

Lucas Ropek, in “The Killer AI That Wasn’t” [gizmodo.com], published on Gizmodo

AI is everywhere these days. Every other story is about the wonder or the horror at Generative AI. Every facet of life is going to be upended. The world as we know it is going to end. AI will take our jobs and leave us in poverty or free us up for a life of self-realization.

The other day I sat down and started a new blog post to talk about AI and the utopia-dystopia rhetoric we are ping-ponging between. Primarily inspired by two articles I read last week:

• “AI-Controlled Drone Goes Rogue, Kills Human Operator in USAF Simulated Test” [slashdot.org] which summarized several article as that amount to a US Air Force Colonel telling about an AI, in a test, that goes HAL9000 on them and kills the “human in the loop” because the idiot was keeping it from killing its target.
• “US Eating Disorder Helpline Takes Down AI Chatbot Over Harmful Advice” [slashdot.org], in which some laid off workers are replaced by a less than helpful AI. The effect of a lack of human touch in dealing with people are are calling a help line because they are vulnerable and stealing help is easy to imagine.

And catching up on the news this morning I ran across some more doom and gloom:

• “ChatGPT took their jobs. Now they walk dogs and fix air conditioners.” [washingtonpost.com], the abstract says it all Technology used to automate dirty and repetitive jobs. Now, artificial intelligence chat bots are coming after high-paid ones.

And then there was this: “The Killer AI That Wasn’t” [gizmodo.com], where I took the opening quote for this post from. Basically after the story of the USAFs HAL9000-esque AI blew up the Air Force has been on a “no, no, no” tour to explain that this was not an actual simulation, it’s some sort of thought experiment or something and that the Colonel’s comments were misconstrued or taken out of context. Setting aside if you believe the retraction or not, the obvious conspiracy theory material here, or the incredulity at there being a colonel in the Air Force that can screw up a speech that bad, and you are still left with WTF?!

Aside: the Gizmodo article uses Skynet from The Terminator as the analogy to this USAF AI scenario, but I think that HAL9000 from 2001 A Space Odyssey is a better fit. Skynet nuked humanity to bring about peace while HAL killed the crew of the Discovery because he decided that were putting the mission, his mission, at risk, they were preventing him from accomplishing his goal. This is exactly what the hypothetical USAF AI did. To quote the Colonel: It killed the operator because that person was keeping it from accomplishing its objective.

So, yea, I wonder if we are approaching peek AI hype or fear mongering? Are we moving from people screaming about it replacing our jobs to it actually replacing our jobs. Two thoughts here:

First, technology has been taking jobs for decades, robots in factories replacing the assembly line workers is nothing new. What’s new is that AI is coming for the “knowledge workers”, the “white collar” workers not just the factory workers and “low skilled” workers. Along side off-shoring or outsourcing AI is going to squeeze the upper middle and upper class. It’s been easy to sit back for the past few decades, as a white collar worker, and “tisk tisk” at the blue collar workers of the world as the complain about the loss of jobs and the lack of help, about capitalism crushing them. Taking it way out of context here but remember what happens when we ignore the plight of others:

First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—
     Because I was not a socialist.

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—
     Because I was not a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
     Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

I’m not comparing AI to Nazis but maybe it’s time workers, of all types, to start to worry about each others plight. Time to revisit the idea of collective action —of unions— to fight back against uncontrolled who capitalism, before AI, outsourcing and automation puts everyone who works for a living, regardless of collar color, out of a job.

I grew up in a time when unions had a bad rap (not all of it undeserved) but I’ve come around more and more over the past two decades, since I entered the workforce, to be of the opinion that organized labor could be a good counter to the influence of corporate and mega-rich influence in politics and government. If Mikey Mouse and Amazon have a seat at they table then the people who work for Mickey Mouse and those that work for Amazon should have a seat too. It’s impossible for an individual to have the same impact as a corporation that can hire a dedicated team to lobby for their point of view and needs, but a union can use it resources in the same way to represent the needs and desire of it’s members.

And secondly, on a related note: people should pay attention to the Writers Guild of America’s strike. Not just because it’s a union action but because of their list of “demands”. The WGA lists Regulate use of material produced using artificial intelligence or similar technologies as one of the demands according to their site [wgacontract2023.org] setup for the strike. The Union is, among other things, seeking protection for it’s member from wholesale replacement by AI. The outcome of this particular strike could be used as a template for other industries, but even if the WGA wins and they are protected from replacement by AI, other industries will need to repeat the action to ensure they are protected, and it may only be union members who are protected. So ask yourself; if your job is at risk —it’s more likely than many people thought a few years or even months ago— and if so, how will you protect yourself? It used to be that education was the best protection against technology, get a job that requires you to use the technology rather then be replaced by it, but now, despite the ever increasing cost of that education it appears that it provides very little protection. Technology is coming for the lawyers, the doctors and all of us, even those that make the technology…

I live in Singapore, I was going to say “where unions are not legal” but I just looked it up in Wikipedia, and there are 70 unions [wikipedia.org]. It’s jus that they fall under one Uber-union, the National Trade Union Council, or NTUC that is a pseudo-government entity, apparently part of a tripartism model which aims to offers competitive advantages for the country by promoting economic competitiveness, harmonious government-labour-management relations and the overall progress of the nation. The NTUC works with the Ministry of Manpower representing the government and the Singapore National Employers Federation repesenting companies which sounds like it aligns well with what I said above, but I’m not sure a pseudo government controled uber-union is practice achives the results I think are the goal. The Wikipedia page lists three union actions, or stikes, in Singapore history, and they deported the leaders of the most recent strike. Practically on the ground, the opinion is striking is illegal in singapore and the governent has co-oped unions through NTUC. People complaine about wages not keeping up with inflation, especially at the lower end, too many forigners taking jobs (low-end and high-end) and other things people all over the world complain about and Unions fight about.

So, I’m not part of a union here, I don’t even know if there is a union for my job. If I ever move back to the US or to Europe, I will have to think long an hard about joining a union. Even if my job is good, even if my salary is good, unions are about collective action, a rising tide lifts all boats. Joining a union would have been unthinkable for me when I was growing up in the era of Regan crushing the Air Traffic Controllers Union, long after Hoffa and the Mob gave unions a bad name, and expecting to go to college and work in the “knowledge economy”.

What is most striking to me, and most discouraging, is that they are so apathetic while being neither blind nor unconscious. […] They witness the rise, more ominous every day, of racism and reactionary attitudes—the birth of a kind of fascism.

Simone de Beauvoir, in America Day by Day

Simone de Beauvoir wrote that in 1947. She was visiting Oberlin collage in Ohio. She wrote it in her diary during a trip across the US and later, in 1948, the diary was published as America Day by Day. I have not read much of Beauvior writing, only a few passages during philosophy classes long ago. But, after seeing this quote in a recent Wisecrack video on Nihilism [youtube.com], I checked out America, from the Internet Archive’s Open Library [openlibrary.org], and read some of it. I wanted to get some context before I posted it. Here is the full paragraph from the book, page 94 of the 1999 edition:

What is most striking to me, and most discouraging, is that [the students] are so apathetic while being neither blind nor unconscious. They know and deplore the oppression of thirteen million blacks, the terrible poverty of the South, the almost equally desperate poverty that pollutes the big cities. They witness the rise, more ominous every day, of racism and reactionary attitudes—the birth of a kind of fascism. They know that their country is responsible for the world’s future. But they themselves don’t feel responsible for anything, because they don’t think they can do anything in this world. At the age of twenty, they are convinced that their thought is futile, their good intentions ineffective: “America is too vast and heavy a body for one individual to move it.” And this evening I formulate what I’ve been thinking for days. In America, the individual is nothing. He is made into an abstract object of worship; by persuading him of his individual value, one stifles the awakening of a collective spirit in him. But reduced to himself in this way, he is robbed of any concrete power. Without collective hope or personal audacity, what can the individual do? Submit or, if by some rare chance this submission is too odious, leave the country.

Simone de Beauvoir, in America Day by Day

The reason I wanted to post the quote, is that when watching the Wisecrack video, it struck me that Beauvoir wrote that in 1947. The second half of it could have been written yesterday. It could be a comment on the current state of America, at least if you are left leaning. Admittedly the first half is not reflective of America today —there have been a lot of protest in the past few years— but the second half’s relevance jumped out at me. Not for the first time, I was reminded that the soul of America is, in many way, unchanging.

In the pages around this passage Beauvoir talks about how American capitalism crushes the individual; how big companies and their political allies fight to suppress the common people, by suppressing unions; how Americans think America is the greatest, without any real evidence or experience. She writes that American students feel a sense of greatness, and their responsibility that comes with that, but also a sense of fatalism that as an individual American there is nothing that anyone can do to stop the machine.

The problems don’t seem to change, we still see the conflict between capital and labor, the tendency of our patriotism towards something more fascist… But, on a more positive note, maybe some things do change; Beauvoir said but they themselves don’t feel responsible for anything, because they don’t think they can do anything in this world. But within a generation the colleges of America would be the wellspring of the protests against the Vietnam war. So, the fatalism of students or the character of American society as a whole, did change; people did stand up and say “my voice can make a difference”. Maybe it was the hangover of them war and depression where these students grew up, and not living inside the devastation of the war like the Europeans did that shaped this particular moment that Beauvoir encountered this fatalism in the students of Oberlin.

Today in America, as in Europe and many other places in the world, university students are a primary source of popular drive for change. Trying to change the world when you are in college is a right of passage for many students. When I was in college I attended anti-war rallies in the US and England, I volunteered for Amnesty International, campaigned for the International Campaign for Tibet, and, of course, I became a vegetarian. Even if your view of the problems and solution does not change with age its hard to devote too much of your life to protesting when you have kids. Also, I live in Singapore, protesting is… frowned upon. Many of these issues are less of an issue in Singapore, even if they are present. What can you do?

Personally, I try to make sure my kids are aware of these issues, and other issues of importance, like climate change. I donate to organizations that fight for the causes I believe are worth. I’m sure I could do more, give more, devote more time. But, c’est la vie. I’m glad there are people out there who don’t outgrow the age of protest. We need them, even if their are too many that rate too far to the left and right to offer solutions I can believe in or even back. Discourse and (peaceful) protest are important parts of American democracy. And as the ability to have civil discourse has seemingly evaporated at all levels of government the protests are more important. When democratic governance can’t or won’t address the issues the popular democratic methods need to take their place. Maybe that’s why we saw such big protests for Black Lives Matter and such a big focus on the voices raised by the #MeToo movement.

Seeing the small protests that took place when Trump was charged and arraigned this week give some hope that maybe America’s fascist tendencies are on the retreat again. Or maybe they will just rally around a different candidate now; fascist like a winner. We’ll see. The US election is about to being again, the greatest show on Earth.